Supported Markets
Markets are supported based on reliable resolution, liquidity microstructure, and safe margining.
Across both Kalshi and Polymarket, markets naturally fall into three simple categories.
Markets that can be hedged continuously with no jump-to-settlement risk,
Markets that trade normally but have a short, clearly defined window where they can jump-to-settlement, and
Markets that can resolve at any time, with no reliable hedge at any point in their life.
A jump refers to a discrete move from a tradable probability to a final 0 or 1 outcome without an opportunity to unwind at intermediate prices.
Multiply fully supports the first two categories, which account for the vast majority of trading volume on both venues, including nearly all crypto and weather markets, most sports and financial markets, and roughly half of politics markets. These are the surfaces where liquidity concentrates.
From a liquidity standpoint, Multiply uses a dedicated Underwriting Facility, a proprietary revolving pool of capital, to finance delta-neutral hedges while handling jump-to-settlement risk by construction.
Examples:
No jump to resolution: Fully covered by the Hedging Facility throughout lifecycle. “Will the S&P 500 close above 6500 on Friday?” Underlying is a continuously tradable equity index.
Clear, short jump-to-resolution window “Will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates at the next meeting?” Long pre-meeting hedgeable phase, then a very tight FOMC announcement window where jumps dominate
Full jump-to-settlement over the whole life: Not supported by Dimes “Will a new Supreme Court justice be confirmed in 2026?” Political, procedural, subject to delays and shocks, and can settle unpredictably.
Beyond market structure, Multiply applies a clear framework for structuring its exposure. We evaluate the market's liquidity and reliability, eligibility criteria for safe margining, and the sizing caps required to keep execution efficient.
The following section outlines how we determine what markets Multiply supports and at what scale.
Venues
Multiply provides leveraged directional exposure on Kalshi and Polymarket and handles all underwriting, collateralization, and settlements.
Additional venues will be added if they meet the same requirements of:
reliable price feeds
consistent orderbook activity
predictable, objective settlement
safe hedging pathways
Market Types
Multiply supports binary markets and simple categorical markets. These markets are enabled only when the underlying venue provides:
Sufficient tradable liquidity: minimum thresholds for usable depth, effective spread, depth stability, fill rate, update frequency, volume, and holder distribution, and;
A predictable resolution structure with continuous, hedgeable price discovery: markets must satisfy minimum remaining time-to-resolution requirements, maintain price within eligible ranges, and have current exposure within per-market and per-side caps.
Eligible markets exhibit the following characteristics:
prices evolve continuously or in bounded stepwise increments
outcome determinism emerges over time rather than instantaneously
jump-to-resolution risk is structurally identifiable by the event design
exposure is sized to live liquidity parameters
For now, we exclude markets whose resolution dynamics cannot be hedged or neutralized safely:
instant-resolution events (“can resolve at any moment”)
markets whose settlement can jump directly to 0 or 1 without passing through tradable price levels
continuous/scalar markets
high-cardinality categorical markets
These exclusions ensure the Underwriting Facility never carries financed exposure through a window where deterministic unwind is impossible, preserving neutrality under all conditions.
Eligibility Criteria for a Market to Be Marginable
A market is considered marginable only when it satisfies all underwriting and hedgeability requirements. Specific thresholds are set and calibrated by Multiply's underwriting models based on observed execution quality, venue microstructure, and stress testing, and may be tightened at any time. Each criterion protects the solvency and unwindability of leveraged exposure.
Liquidity thresholds
Usable depth: minimum executable size within a bounded spread of mid, per side
Effective spread: maximum volume-weighted average spread across top levels
Depth stability: rolling coefficient of variation of usable depth, measured over the lesser of a fixed lookback window or a fraction of market lifespan
Update frequency: maximum median time between order book updates
Market structure thresholds
Time to resolution: minimum time remaining for continuous markets, and minimum time to hazard window for event-resolution markets
Price range: mid price must fall within an eligible band, excluding extreme probabilities where opposing-side liquidity is insufficient for bounded unwind
Holder distribution: maximum concentration of open interest among top holders per side
Current exposure: within per-market and per-side caps, derived from usable depth and the model's depth-to-exposure ratio
These thresholds are enforced continuously. Breach of any single threshold triggers automatic state transitions — close-only, entry blocking, or leverage decay — ensuring Multiply can always hedge and unwind positions at a predictable, bounded cost.
Dynamic restriction
If a market fails any eligibility criterion at any time, Multiply may:
reduce maximum leverage,
activate leverage decay,
enforce new exposure caps,
move to close-only mode,
or fully disable new entries.
All transitions are deterministic and logged. This keeps the Underwriting Facility hedgeable under all supported conditions.
Per-Market Caps and Exposure Limits
To operate safe leverage on capped-payoff instruments, Multiply uses strict exposure control and deterministic liquidation.
Market-Level Exposure Cap: Total outstanding notional across all users is capped at a fraction of hedgeable depth across both sides, ensuring unwindability even during stress.
Side-Level Caps (YES vs NO): YES and NO exposures have independent caps to avoid unbalanced books, preventing skewed risk profiles, degraded hedgeability, and situations where one leg becomes too thin to support exit liquidity.
User-Level Caps: Per-user exposure is capped based on venue liquidity and volatility conditions.
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